Archive for 五月 2008
被攻陷的唯色
这可能是IT时代可能出现的噩梦：昨天，我收到唯色给我发的短信：
我的博客不但被封，数据库也给删除了。skype的密码也给窃取了，不要再跟我的skype(degewa)联系了:-(还有，我的gmail信箱也暂停了:-(唯色
компютри
这几天一直很忙，几乎没什么时间上网，很久没去看唯色的博客了。没想到突然就这个样子了。
我个人对西藏问题有我自己的看法，和唯色多有不同，甚至对她有诸多批评；但是不管怎样，我总是觉得，一个社会要健康发展，就需要保护少数人发声的权力。当然，可能没有人能够确切地指出，这是政府干的。然而，这件事情，太令人悲哀了。
政府有多得多的资源来进行自己的宣传；对比之下，唯色的声音，可能只是某些人耳边萦绕不去的小蚊子。在这样的强烈对比下，用几乎是网络暴力的方式攻陷唯色，只能说明某些人的虚弱。
如果北京真的对自己有信心，就应该象M.A.Jones做的一样，到唯色的博客上去摆数据，讲道理。眼前的做法，有个最经典的描述——掩耳盗铃！
被攻陷的唯色
这可能是IT时代可能出现的噩梦：昨天，我收到唯色给我发的短信：
我的博客不但被封，数据库也给删除了。skype的密码也给窃取了，不要再跟我的skype(degewa)联系了:-(还有，我的gmail信箱也暂停了:-(唯色
компютри
这几天一直很忙，几乎没什么时间上网，很久没去看唯色的博客了。没想到突然就这个样子了。
我个人对西藏问题有我自己的看法，和唯色多有不同，甚至对她有诸多批评；但是不管怎样，我总是觉得，一个社会要健康发展，就需要保护少数人发声的权力。当然，可能没有人能够确切地指出，这是政府干的。然而，这件事情，太令人悲哀了。
政府有多得多的资源来进行自己的宣传；对比之下，唯色的声音，可能只是某些人耳边萦绕不去的小蚊子。在这样的强烈对比下，用几乎是网络暴力的方式攻陷唯色，只能说明某些人的虚弱。
如果北京真的对自己有信心，就应该象M.A.Jones做的一样，到唯色的博客上去摆数据，讲道理。眼前的做法，有个最经典的描述——掩耳盗铃！
学术问题：汶川地震预测
update:
通过仔细研读第一篇文章，发现国家地理的这篇文章很不靠谱。Densmore et. al.的文章并不表明龙门山一带有立即的地震威胁，而只是指出这一带属于地震高危区。文章中说到：
Finally, our observations of fault activity in the late Pleistocene and Holocene have important implications for seismic hazard, particularly in the densely populated Sichuan Basin.
不会有严肃的科学家用这么大时间的观察结果来预测地震。而龙门山一带属于地震区，在地震学界相信不是秘密。
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今天，看到朋友推荐的国家地理杂志的文章Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago。这是我看到学术界唯一有分量的对汶川地震预测的相关研究。但是由于目前还不清楚的原因，中国各级政府无人知晓这个研究，或者对此研究做出反应。
这个研究主要通过对卫星影像和实地测量，揭示龙门山地震带有较为活跃的移动。文章的结论是：They also suggest that activity on the margin-parallel faults in eastern Tibet may represent a significant seismic hazard to the densely populated Sichuan Basin.
因为太模糊，这可能还说不上是有意义的地震预测。但是，如果四川省地震局和国家地震局对此重视，并做相关研究，能产生什么？我无法预测。
这个跨国团队有长达十年的合作研究。其中包括成都理工大学油气藏地质及开发工程国家重点实验室41岁的年轻教授李勇(liy@cdut.edu.cn)和四川省地震局工程地震研究院44岁研究员周荣军。
当然，也不排除他们自己也不认为他们的研究就能够精确到2008年5月12日下午14:30的汶川。
我希望有记者能够去采访这两位中国学者。希望任何方面，包括学界，政界无人阻止这样的采访。希望中国的地震学界能够以学术的态度对这个案子进行检讨。
有兴趣的网友，可以参考：
http://www.geography.dur.ac.uk/documents/densmore/densmore_etal07.pdf
祝福中国
2008年真是不平静的一年。
祝福中国！
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此次地震的一个亮点是，政府和媒体的快速响应。几乎地震发生后，CCTV立即开始滚动播放有关地震的消息（尽管由于通讯障碍，真正来自汶川及邻近地区的消息很少），政府的相关措施，地震专家的解释，以及对全国各地震感的报道。胡锦涛主席和温家宝总理在第一时间对地震灾情做出了反应；地方政府和军队也迅速组织起来，抗震救灾。BBC的记者Quentin Somerville写道，
The BBC’s Quentin Somerville says this is probably the most significant natural disaster to hit China in recent memory, but that the Chinese army has a good record of mobilising and getting people to safety.
He also says it is one of the most open and speedy responses to an emergency he has ever seen from Chinese state media.
The fact the quake was felt in Beijing, he says, means millions of people will feel connected to the disaster and will be watching TV screens closely to see how the government responds.
当然，你可以解释说，地震是纯粹的天灾。但是，我个人感到，这次新闻媒体的开放和快速，的确前所未见。据报道，各级政府也充分利用短信等现代化通讯手段，向广大民众即时通告地震情况，有效地降低了民众的恐慌情绪。中国政府在开放……
M.A.Jones: My position on Tibetan issue
The whole disucussion thread is introduced to me by netizen Willy, originally from a closed PBS discussion forum with title In response to Tony Martin (in relation to the Tibet issue). That’s a very long thread and below is excerpt of Jones’ summary on his position. Although there is only statements below, you can easily find more “empirically verifiable research data of both a quantitative and qualitative nature” in the thread.
I agree the overall frame of his position but disagree on several points. In general, I think that’s a good starter for Tibetan issue.
BTW, I can’t contact M.A.Jones at the moment. So the post is here w/o his permission.
===============================================================
Let me summarise my overall position on the Tibetan issue, so as to help those of you who are interested in producing a rebuttal. My arguments are as follows:
1. Human rights abuses have and continue to occur in Tibet, but the extent of these abuses has been and continues to be greatly exaggerated by the Tibetan Government in Exile and by its Western supporters in the so-called “pro-Tibet lobby”.
2. The human rights conditions and overall living standards of the majority of Tibetans has been and continues to improve under Chinese rule, and this has been the case since the Deng reforms were first introduced.
3. Most ill-feelings towards the Han Chinese and towards Chinese rule reflect the collective memory of the Cultural Revolution experience. The strength of these feelings is now beginning to fade as more and more Tibetans are drawn into the middle class, and their lives made more comfortable. Tibetans are thus becoming increasingly divided on their attitudes towards Chinese rule, and their feelings more complex and open to flux.
4. Tibetan culture is not, contrary to the propaganda of the pro-Tibet lobby, in any danger of disappearing. Quite the opposite in fact – Tibet, over the past few decades, has been and continues to experience a cultural renaissance, spurred on partly by financial grants and encouragement from Beijing, and partly through the initiative of ethnic Tibetans themselves, as they seize on the opportunities that increasing tourism brings to share their cultural life in newly commodified forms.
5. Rather than being “Sinocised” urban Tibet is being Westernised. Tibet’s transition from feudalism to modernity has been a painful one, but one that many Tibetans are now embracing as they see the benefits filtering through. Young Tibetans are thus becoming increasingly less interested in religious and independence issues as they discover and embrace more de-sublimated forms of pleasure through shopping, the internet, discos, kareoke bars, and, for the smaller but growing number of wealthier bougeois individuals among them (most of whom are drawn, not surprisingly, from the families of religious tulkas) the joys of both domestic and international travel and study.
6. The traditional political activities of organised Tibetan religious intitutions throughout the TAR have been restrained, and continue to be restrained (often brutally) under Chinese governance, but generally speaking lamaism is thriving – not only throughout the TAR, but also throughout greater China (even in Beijing) and internationally too for that matter. Considerable religious freedom then, despite claims to the contrary, exists in Tibet.
7. The Tibetan Government in Exile mislead the world about the true nature of the majority of those Tibetans who journey to Dharmasala each year – most are not refugees, but religious pilgrims. The Tibetan Government in Exile has both financial and political incentives to do so.
8. The Tibetan Government in Exile and its Western supporters in the pro-Tibet lobby are funded mostly by those whose economic and political interests view China’s rise as a threat. The U.S. State Department is the major contributor of funds to both the Government in Exile and to the Tibet lobby. Considerable funds are also raised through commercial activities, like international Dalai Lama lecture tours, and through the sale of Buddhist kitsch to Western New Age consumers.
9. Pro-Tibetan lobby groups essentially parade as “non-profit” human rights organisations, registering themselves as charities to encourage businesses and individuals to make tax-deductible donations – which essentially means that they are a drain on the public purse. They also have a vested interest in grossly exaggerating their claims in order to excite the sympathies of the public so that they can attract public donations and political support.
10. That by failing to present a fair and more realistic picture of what is happening in Tibet, both the self-proclaimed Tibetan Government in Exile and their supporters actually cause far more harm than good to the plight of the Tibetan people, especially for those living within the TAR. Their propaganda and support encourages hardliners within the ethnic Tibetan community living within the TAR to promote resistance and separatism, which in turn adds to the anxieties and security concerns of those hardliners within the Chinese ruling elite, who then in turn respond by introducing and enforcing more strictly those public security laws that restrict politico-religious activities – which as I said earlier, often do in fact result in brutal punishments by over-zealous enforcers. Such instances, not surprisingly then, tend to occur in waves, rather than on a regular day to day basis.
11. The main long-term political goal of the former ruling theocratic elite, now based in Dharmasala, is to regain their political control of Tibet. Their international campaign against China therefore, rather ironically, does more harm to their own cause than good, and only decreases their likelihood of ever being able to cut a deal with Beijing. The watered down goal of the Dalai Lama now, is the establishment of self-government for the TAR whilst remaining a part of China – in the same way that Hong Kong operates. Ironically, this is EXACTLY what China originally offered the Tibetan ruling elite, but by rejecting the offer in favour of supporting a separatist movement for full independence, they have now lost out completely. Easily the single biggest political mistake of the Dalai Lama’s career – as A. Tom Grunfeld has convincingly pointed out.
