An Anachronist’s Life

When I read the historic events between China and Tibet-in-exile, again I noticed this strange phenomenon, the radical factor in Tibetan always fueled the hand of hard-liner in Beijing and weaken the moderate Chinese. The moderate’s policy of more ethnically sensitive fostered the Tibetan’s national emotion and finally led to their increasing independence claim. In such case, hard-liner came into power and ruthlessly squeezed the religious and culture freedom; in return, such hard policy increased the possibility of violent opposition in Tibet by radical Tibetans and non-violent Dalai Lama got doubted.

The same story repeated in circles of internaltion relationship such as Taiwan strait relationship, Palestine-Israel conflict and so on. Ironically, the best friend of hard-liner A is hard-liner B in opponents’ camp. When Sharon struck hard on Palestine, Fatah’s base was challenged and radical Hamas won more support.

I think such phenomenon can be explained well by Game theory. And that’s a good topic for a serious research. According to Game theory, such scenario will only occur when two participators are in a short-round trade. If both sides feel they have to develop long trade relationship they will return to more moderate position and start to co-operate.

多数专制领袖毫无超越性，只想把持绝对权力，然而历史上的确出现过例外，较近的如蒋经国、戈尔巴乔夫。毛泽东也是其中一个──文化大革命就是毛力图实现超越的一次豪赌。

多维博客 » 重点推荐王力雄新论：《中国从文革得到什么?》

这篇文章是在李宪源在多维上的博客转载的。

知道王力雄，是他的著名的《天葬》。在我看来，这本书基本上是讲述西藏问题的中文书中最具真知灼见的一个。

对文革的解读有很多。我个人倾向于这是一场由毛泽东发起的中共上层政治斗争。近年来李登辉的思想脉路、所作所为，有类似毛泽东的地方。王力雄的此说不算新，姑存一说。